Chance-Constrained Maneuver Planning for Satellite Collision Avoidance Under Uncertainty
A new arXiv paper presents a planning method that decides whether a spacecraft has enough information to justify a collision-avoidance maneuver in low Earth orbit. The approach frames the decision as a chance-constrained problem in belief space, accounting for uncertainty in the predicted encounter. It aims to help operators handle the rising number of conjunctions without committing to unnecessary burns.