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proper scoring rules

topic2 events
papersTODAY 04:00 UTC

Calibeating generalized from quadratic scoring to all proper scoring rules

A new arXiv paper extends the concepts of calibrated forecasts and calibeating, which were previously defined only for the standard quadratic scoring rule, to the full class of proper scoring rules. The authors develop these notions in this broader setting, where truthful reporting is a defining property of the rule. The work aims to show how calibration-based guarantees carry over beyond the squared-error case.

calibration/forecasting/scoring-rules/research
papersSEP 11 04:00 UTC

Study examines how scoring rules affect LLM forecasting accuracy

A paper on arXiv compares five proper scoring rules used as training objectives for large language models making binary forecasts about real-world events. The author reports that the choice of reward function influences both the accuracy and the behavior of the resulting forecasters, even though the rules are theoretically equivalent. The work suggests reward design matters when fine-tuning models for prediction tasks.

llm-forecasting/research/evaluation/reward-models